(Proudly cross-posted at C4O Democrats)
This year has been quite transformative for The West, especially The Southwest. Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico have gone from Red to Blue. Utah and Arizona don’t look quite as Red as they used to. Oh yes, and California now looks bluer than ever before.
But will this last? Will The Southwest continue to trend blue? And can Democrats continue to make gains here?
Honestly, I think so. Why? First off, demographics are shifting our way. Latinos continue to grow in population and political influence. “Creative Class” professionals continue to breathe new life into the region’s urban areas. The area has changed, and the changes favor us.
And because the demographics of The Southwest has changed, so has the politics. The old “rugged individualism” and “libertarian conservatism” that used to define the region’s politics have faded away as these formerly rural states are becoming much more urban and suburban. After all, why would young parents in Henderson, NV, worry about whether or not they can own assault rifles when they have to make plans for their kids’ college education, keep their kids safe from dangerous air and water pollutions, and be able to afford a home and food and health care? Why would a couple of biotech researchers in Aurora, CO, feel threatened by public park land in the state when they’re worried about keeping their jobs?
See where I’m going? The West has changed. I know. I’ve witnessed how my native Orange County, CA, has changed from “John Birch Society” embarrassment to dynamic urban environment. I’ve seen firsthand how Las Vegas has transformed from small casino town to world-class destination. I’ve been amazed by how the entire region has changed, and how we all saw this on full display as Democrats won across the board here.
So what should we do next? Let’s first talk about Nevada. Barack Obama won here by 12% (vs. a 2% Bush win in 2004), Democrat Dina Titus defeated GOP incumbent Jon Porter for Congress in NV-03, and Democrats now control both houses of the state legislature. So what next? We keep Majority Leader Harry Reid in the Senate and put a good Democrat in the Governor’s seat to replace the disgraced GOP incumbent Jim Gibbons, as both are quite doable. I’d now peg the Senate race as “Leans Democratic” and the Governor’s race as “Toss-up”. Oh yes, and we’d be wise to take advantage of Obama’s possible 2012 coattails here by finding a legitimate challenger to GOP Senator John Ensign.
Colorado was also good to us this year, as Obama won by 9% (vs. a 5% Bush win in 2004), Mark Udall won a formerly GOP Senate seat, and Betsy Markey unseated GOP Rep. Marilyn Musgrave in CO-04. So what can we do now? I’d peg incumbent Senator Ken Salazar’s 2010 race as “Likely Democratic” now, but we should keep a close watch to make sure we win again. And of course, we’ll need to make sure Obama wins again in 2012.
But what about California? Obama won here by a whopping 24% (vs. a 10% Kerry win in 2004) and Democrats already have both Senate seats & 33 of 53 House seats. What more can we have? How about the Governor’s seat, which I already consider “Leans Democratic” as the GOP has no strong candidate to succeed Arnold Schwarzenegger? And how about winning the “Toss-up” House races in CA-03, CA-04, and CA-44 in 2010, where we came so close this year? Same goes for the “Leans Republican” races in CA-46 and CA-50?
And what about Arizona? McCain won his home state by 9% (vs. an 11% Bush win in 2004), but Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick still managed to win a formerly GOP seat in AZ-01. So is there still potential here? I think so. Without the McCain win here in 2012. And better yet, we can beat McCain in 2010, as well as fellow GOP Senator Jon Kyl in 2012, with the right candidates. Same goes with the 2010 Governor’s race, which can be a “Toss-up” if we can have a quality candidate run against newly minted GOP Governor Jan Brewer.
So where do we go from here out West? We win! Ready to win?
Go for it!
Btw, in case you’re wondering about it, I didn’t mention Utah or New Mexico this morning because I’m not seeing any fiercely competitive races now. Perhaps we’ll need to keep a close eye on NM-01 & NM-02, but so far I don’t see much drama there. And while I have hope Utah’s slowly moving our way, I think we’ll need to wait a few more cycles before we see real gains on the federal level.
Who won the open Colorado Senate seat. Tom won the one in New Mexico.
The results in many of these states are quite remarkable at the House, Senate and Governor level.
Colorado: 7 House, 2 Senate
Picked up CO-3 in 2004 (John Salazar, open seat); CO-7 in 2006 (Ed Perlmutter, open seat), and CO-4 (betsy Markey deeated Marilyn Musgrave) in 2008. Picked up single Senate seats in 2004 (Ken Salazar) and 2008 (Udall). Picked up Governorship (2006). Just amazing.
Arizona: 8 House, 2 Senate
Picked up AZ-5 (Harry Mitchell) and AZ-8 (Gabrielle Giffords) in 2006 and AZ-1 (Ann Kirkpatrick) in 2008.
Wwent from 6-2 GOP to 5-3 Democratic. Threatened John Shadegg as well in 2008. Both Senate seats remain Republican and the Governorship we won at the polls we lose by Obama’s appointment.
New Mexico: 3 House, 2 Senate
2008 was a huge year as we picked up the second Senate seat and 2 House seats. We now have a sweep (Governor, 2 Senators, 3 House).
Nevada: 3 House, 2 Senate
The Senate is split but by taking Jon Porter’s seat, Tina Titus moved NV from 2-2 GOP to 2-1 D in the House. The scandal plagued Governor’s seat is a prime pick up opportunity.
Utah: Republican central. Sorry.
California: Really does not belong on the list. Either it is separate or part of the west coast gig. What we forget is that from 1948 through 1988 California was a very closely contested state with a Republican lean. It was only with Clinton that we started to win this routinely by 10 plus points. Thank you Pete Wilson. Thank you demographic change. That produced a huge change in the state’s House delegation through 2000 but little since (CA-11 flipped in 2006). The number of close elections for Republicans indicates we have a really good opportunity under the present district lines in 2010. After that, it’s a new ball game.
Btw: we also picked up a Senate seat in Montana, a House seat in Idaho and made things interesting in Wyoming’s ouse races, particularly in 2006. The governor of Wyoming and Montana are Democrats.
Wowza.
I know the seat is trending our way, but Republicans are likely to come after Markey strong and she is the kind of incumbent that like like several good guys that lost in 1994(Karan English who was beat by JD Hayworth comes to mind) could be swept out by an anti-Democratic tide.
ID-01, CO-04, NM-02 and possibly NV-03 and NM-01 will be top targets for Republicans. I’m feeling pretty good about the New Mexico and Nevada ones.
Not a whole lot of House action beyond that. MT-AL might be a potential target. We came close in a lot of the California districts but I think that was due in large part to Obama’s win.
On the Senate side Boxer’s pretty safe and Salazar and Reid could get top tier opponents but both should be able to easily handle them. Bennett is safe for Republicans. McCain’s probably is the biggest potential target but Giffords or another top tier person needs to run to make it that way and I suspect Obama will want to try to work with McCain on some issues and wouldn’t want to campaign too hard against him for fear of alienating him totally. We should put up a fight here though no matter what.
The govenor’s races will be the big thing. California is always critical and I wouldn’t say it’s a done deal and hopefully we can take back Arizona with Goddard, I’m feeling pretty good about those pickups. Denish and Ritter should cruise to re-election. Wyoming is probably going to be the toughest hold, I’d bet Republicans pick that one up and we pick up Nevada easily. Arizona and California are probably going to be the two biggest battlegrounds and I’m feeling good about them. I could see a net gain of 2 in the region’s executives.
I agree…the West is rife with targets. Arizona is a big bullseye, especially if Shadegg retires. California would need some un-gerrymandering, but Mary Bono-Mack, David Dreier, Tom McClintock, Brian Bilbray, Dana Rohrabacher, and, even Gallegly have the chance to go down. I do see a few losses, though, including in my home state of Colorado. The legislature on the state level will remain fairly statically blue. Ditto our Senate seats. I don’t, however, think that Rep. Markey can hold CO-04 without the presence of a crazy as an opponent. This means, I think, that it’s “boy-wonder” Cory Gardner’s for the taking…even more so for the more moderate Ken Kester.